From The Desk of Evan Daniel
Insights into Western Queens Commercial Real Estate
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October 13, 2026
Stabilized rents in New York City aren't going up at all this year. The Rent Guidelines Board voted 7–1 in June for a 0% increase on both one- and two-year leases. It took effect Oct. 1 and runs through Sept. 30, 2027.
For tenants, that's a year of relief. For owners of stabilized walk-ups in Astoria and Long Island City, it's a year of flat income while taxes, insurance and payroll keep climbing. The market is already pricing that in.
Year to date we have tracked only 19 walk-up sales (5+ units) in LIC and Astoria with an average of about $285 per square foot and $221,000 per unit. The trend matters more than the average: the median price per square foot fell from roughly $273 in the first quarter to about $227 in the third, a drop of about 17%.
Lenders are paying attention too. Fitch called the freeze credit-negative for stabilized loans, and North Queens multifamily cap rates averaged 7.53% in the first half, versus 6.38% for mixed-use.
What it means for you:
· Heavily stabilized, with a loan maturing in the next 18 months? Run the refinance math now, before another flat year hits your rent roll.
· Mostly free-market or mixed-use? Yours is the building buyers want, and the pricing gap is real.
· A 1031 buyer? Walk-up buyers haven't had this much leverage in years.
The freeze doesn't change what your building is. It changes what the next buyer will pay for it. Know that number before you need it.
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October 27, 2026
The City Council just passed the Community Opportunity to Purchase Act (COPA), and the mayor is expected to sign it. For a growing list of multifamily owners, the way you sell your building is about to change.
Under COPA, when an eligible building goes up for sale, city-selected nonprofits and their joint-venture partners get the first shot: a 145-day window at the start of the sale process before the open market can bid. HPD now estimates about 3,400 distressed properties qualify, more than 1,000 above earlier counts and well above the roughly 2,100 cited on the Council floor. Eligibility is tied to violation counts and city enforcement programs, so the list can grow as enforcement steps up.
What that means for owners:
· Five months of dead time. That's 145 days before a well-capitalized buyer can even make an offer, plus rate risk, carry costs and a building that isn't getting any younger.
· Uncertain bidders. Even industry attorneys question whether most nonprofits can fund both the purchase and the repairs. Many expect offers to be rejected and deals to land with for-profit buyers anyway, just later.
· A moving target. A building that's clean today can qualify tomorrow after a few violations or an enforcement program.
My advice: if a sale is anywhere on your horizon in the next few years, quietly test the market now, "on spec." Find out what your building is worth and who the real buyers are while you still control the timeline. Clean up open violations. Know whether you're on the list before the city tells you.
Selling isn't mandatory. But information is leverage, and under COPA the owners who move first will keep the most of it.
Press - Evan Daniel / Modern Spaces
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Traded - Shuo Tang Acquires Industrial Property At 34-12 Borden Avenue Long Island City For $1.64M
Traded - Henry Zheng Acquires Development Site From Sidney Mandel In Long Island City For $1.65M
Traded - Wei Ma Purchases Development Site From Susan Bolger In Long Island City For $2.92M
Traded - Leah Chen Acquires Industrial Asset From Sidney Mandel In Long Island City For $2.25M
Traded - Marianne Kurylo Sells Multifamily Asset In Astoria For $1.31M With Broker Evan Daniel
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Commercial Observer - Private School Leases Former Catholic Convent in Greenpoint
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The Real Deal - The Cigar Factory
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Queens Courier - Astoria Development Site Sold
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Bloomberg News - Condos Coming to NYC's Long Island City After Rental Boom
Queens Courier - Q & A on Long Island City with Evan Daniel
Bisnow Real Estate - Long Island City Revolution!
The Real Deal - Modern Spaces Commercial & Investment Property Group
Press Release - Modern Spaces Commercial & Investment Property Group Launch Press Release
